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09/04/2010 - Bridgeview, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Omar Gonzalez scored in stoppage time and the Los Angeles Galaxy escaped Toyota Park with a 1-1 draw against the 10-man Chicago Fire on Saturday, despite a missed penalty from Landon Donovan and a late goal from Collins John.
Donovan's first-half penalty was stopped by Fire goalkeeper Sean Johnson, then John scored the opening goal in the 88th minute to put Chicago in position for its second win over L.A. in just over a month.
L.A. responded just seconds into stoppage time through Gonzalez, who jumped to meet a corner kick from Donovan and headed powerfully past Johnson from just a few yards out.
The Galaxy (13-5-5) avoided their fourth loss in their last five games, a span that started with a 3-2 loss to the Fire on Aug. 1.
Chicago (6-7-7) followed that win over Los Angeles with a tie against Red Bull New York and a win over New England, but then lost back-to-back matches to the Houston Dynamo and Seattle Sounders FC. The Fire are now winless in three.
L.A. had the best chances in the opening half, including a header over the bar by MLS leading scorer Edson Buddle in the 15th minute and another header over the bar in the 39th from Donovan.
The key play of the first half was in the 23rd minute, when Donovan failed to convert a penalty kick after Gonzalo Segares was sent off for a foul in the area. The U.S. star drove his penalty to the right but did not place it well, and Johnson dove to his left to deflect the shot.
L.A. nearly erased the frustrating first half midway through the second when a nice back-flick pass from Donovan set up Sean Franklin, who fired just wide of the left post.
Chicago notched the first goal two minutes from time off a free kick as John, who just entered the match minutes earlier, drove the ball around L.A.'s wall and into the bottom-right corner from 22 yards.
Gonzalez spoiled Chicago's celebration seconds later, as Donovan delivered the corner from the right, and the central defender soared to reach the ball near the edge of the six-yard box. His strong header left Johnson no chance.
Johnson, who finished with seven saves, was called into action one final time, and he responded with a one-handed save on Franklin two minutes into stoppage time.
Chicago continues its busy September on Wednesday, when Toronto FC visits. The Galaxy host the Columbus Crew on Sept. 11 in a battle of two of the best teams in MLS.
<< Bengals chop 22, including WR Jones, K Rayner
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wide receiver Matt Jones and kicker Dave
Rayner were among the players released by the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday,
as the team reduced its roster to the 53-man NFL limit.
Jones, a former first-round pick
<< Snedeker joins Day in Deutsche Bank lead
Norton, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brandt Snedeker fired a seven-under 64 Saturday
to join Jason Day in the lead after 36 holes of the Deutsche Bank
Championship, the second of four FedExCup series playoff events.
Day, who shared the first-round
<< Buccaneers cut 20, including WR Clayton
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former first-round draft choice Michael Clayton
was among the players released by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Saturday, as the
team reduced its roster to the 53-player NFL maximum.
Clayton, who posted 221 catches
<< Pickens: Gundy's done a good job at Oklahoma St.
STILLWATER, Okla. (AP) -Prominent Oklahoma State booster T. Boone Pickens says he's pleased with the performance of football coach Mike Gundy and is predicting an eight-win season for the Cowboys.Pickens spoke Saturday before Oklahoma State hosted W
Hamlin edges Newman for Atlanta pole >>
Hampton, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denny Hamlin earned his first pole of the
season by topping Ryan Newman in Saturday's qualifying for the Emory
Healthcare 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Hamlin turned in a lap of 187.380 m.p.
Ducks dominate in opener against New Mexico >>
Eugene, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kenjon Barner rushed for 146 yards and four
touchdowns on 17 carries as 11th-ranked Oregon used a powerful first
half to dismantle New Mexico, 72-0, in the first-ever meeting between the
schools
25th-ranked West Virginia opens by blanking Coastal Carolina >>
Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Geno Smith completed 20-of-27 passes for a
career-high 216 yards and two touchdowns in his first collegiate start and
Noel Devine ran for 111 yards and a score to lead West Virginia to a 31-0
drubbin
Giants make cuts, QB Bomar among them >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Quarterback Rhett Bomar was among the
players released by the New York Giants on Saturday, as the team reduced its
roster to the 53-player maximum.
Bomar, a fifth-round 2009 draft choice out of Sam Hous
The AFC South and the NFC East are the favorite divisions to have the next Super Bowl champ among them in the NFL betting odds. But more down to the point, these football odds are in favor of the Indianapolis Colts, by far the strongest team in the AFC South, and the Dallas Cowboys of the NFC East.
Most sports fans would agree that these two teams top the list to win it all before the season even begins. In the BetUS Sportsbook football futures, the Colts are +800 in the odds to win the Super Bowl, while the Cowboys are sitting at +1000 and the Super Bowl XLIV champions New Orleans Saints at +900. In the AFC South, the Colts won the division for five straight years after the 2002 realignment, before the Tennessee Titans won it in 2008. But the Colts came back strong in 2009 to win the division again en route to the Super Bowl. The Cowboys are the favorite to win the NFC East, as well as to advance far into the post season. The Cowboys won the division last season before their horrendous loss in the NFC Divisional playoff to Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings. But the ‘Boys will take that loss humbly and be ready for the playoffs this time around.
The NFC South is also very strong, at +600 in the NFL futures, considering that it is home to the defending Super Bowl champions. However, some predictions have the Atlanta Falcons with possibilities of claiming the divisional title this season in place of the Saints, as no team has won back-to-back division championships since the division realignment took place. Let’s not overlook the AFC North at +500. As TO goes to Cincinnati to join Chad OchoCinco and Adam “Pac-Man” Jones, this team looks to claim the division title again. And it is likely they will do so. The Bengals lost in the AFC Wild Card spot in a hard-fought battle against the New York Jets last season. Lest not forget the Pittsburgh Steelers, the XLII Super Bowl Champions… All these teams present interesting odds and matchups for the upcoming season, but the safest and surest bet seems to be with the Colts in the AFC South and the Cowboys in the NFC East. Play this weekly NFL Football Contestto see if you can win.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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