New Mexico wins 15th straight, advances in MWC tourney

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Darington Hobson erupted for 28 points and 15 rebounds, carrying No. 8 New Mexico to a hard-fought 75-69 victory over Air Force in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

Dairese Gary returned from an early injury and made 14-of-15 free throws to account for most of his 20-point effort for the Lobos (29-3), who set a single-season school record for wins thanks to their 15th straight victory.

New Mexico, the top seed in the tournament, moves on to play the winner of the Colorado State/San Diego State battle.

Tom Fow and Michael Lyons scored 17 and 15 points, respectively, to lead the ninth-seeded Falcons (10-21), whose win over Wyoming on Wednesday was their second in MWC tourney history.

The Falcons, who lost a 59-56 decision at New Mexico less than three weeks ago, again gave the Lobos all they can handle at the Thomas & Mack Center.

A Roman Martinez three-pointer had the favorites up 58-49 with less than 7 1/2 minutes to play, but Lyons' jumper two minutes later cut it to a 61-58 game.

New Mexico pulled away with five straight from the free throw line, and Hobson's acrobatic tip-in provided a 68-58 margin.

Mike McLain's offensive foul followed by two Gary free throws capped the game- sealing 11-0 run with 1:13 remaining, helping New Mexico grind out the surprisingly tough win.

Air Force was on top 13-12 when Todd Fletcher capped a 9-0 run with a three- pointer six minutes into the game. The Falcons went the next seven minutes without scoring, though the Lobos only scored eight during that stretch.

New Mexico's largest lead in the first half was 10, but Evan Washington beat the halftime buzzer with a long deuce to pull the underdogs within 38-31 at halftime.

Fow made two free throws and a three-pointer before Washington's three-point play cut Air Force's deficit to 48-47 with 12:48 to play.

Game Notes

This is New Mexico's second-longest winning streak in school history behind a 17-game streak set in 1967-68...The Lobos have won seven straight over Air Force...Grant Parker, the Falcons' leading scorer with 13.1 ppg, scored just six, while Fletcher and Washington netted 12 and 11, respectively, in defeat...Air Force outshot New Mexico 54.0 percent to 46.8 percent from the floor but were outscored on the foul line, 25-8.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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