Warner and Cardinals deal Buffalo first loss of season

Football Betting Lines

10/05/2008 - Glendale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kurt Warner threw a pair of touchdown passes and Tim Hightower scored twice, as the Arizona Cardinals cruised past the previously unbeaten Buffalo Bills, 41-17.

Warner hit on 33-of-42 pass attempts for 250 yards and Larry Fitzgerald caught both touchdown passes among a seven-catch, 52-yard performance. Hightower gained 37 yards on seven carries while Edgerrin James also scored, rushing for 57 yards on 21 attempts for Arizona (3-2), which committed a whopping seven turnovers in last weekend's wild 56-35 setback to Brett Favre and the Jets. Six of those miscues were attributed to Warner, whose prolific 472-yard passing performance was neutralized by three interceptions and a trio of lost fumbles. The Cardinals snapped a two-game losing streak.

"We're a tough team to beat when we don't turn the ball over," Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt said. We had a number of different players that made big plays today. I'm really excited about the way we played."

Trent Edwards was forced to leave the game with a concussion on the third play from scrimmage and J.P. Losman struggled in relief. Losman accounted for three turnovers in throwing for 220 yards on 15-of-21 passing with a touchdown and an interception. Lee Evans hauled in an 87-yard TD catch, highlighting a two- catch, 100-yard effort while Marshawn Lynch was limited to 55 yards on 13 carries for the Bills (4-1), who rallied from a 14-6 halftime deficit last Sunday to down the St. Louis Rams, 31-14.

The Bills were seeking their first 5-0 start since 1991.

"Our guys played hard, I think as hard in this loss as our first four victories," Bills coach Dick Jauron said. "I'll always feel good about that. We don't always play smart and we made some errors we need to correct. It was one of those days when we couldn't get anything generated almost anywhere."

Things got off to a bad start for Buffalo as Edwards was leveled by Arizona's Adrian Wilson on the third play of the game. With Edwards relegated to the sideline, Losman came on and lost a fumble on his second play, giving Arizona the ball at the Buffalo 38. A Warner to Fitzgerald hookup put Arizona on the two-yard-line and the Cardinals took a 7-0 lead after Warner found Fitzgerald wide open in the right corner of the end zone on the next play.

The Cardinals' next possession saw them take the ball 80 yards on 14 plays and Hightower capped it with a 17-yard TD run for a 14-0 advantage 45 seconds into the second quarter.

Buffalo answered, though, and in a big way as Losman escaped a collapsing pocket to find Evans for an 87-yard touchdown just over two minutes later.

Arizona was undeterred and drove 78 yards in 12 plays on its next turn with the ball and James made it count with a one-yard TD.

The Bills responded quickly with Losman settled in. The QB breached the goal line himself on 3rd-and-goal from the two-yard-line, cutting the lead to a 21-14 deficit with just 1:46 to go in the half. Warner worked quickly after getting the ball back, going 5-for-5 passing on a 44-yard drive to put Neil Rackers in position to nail a 47-yard field goal as the half expired.

Rian Lindell opened the second-half scoring with a 48-yard field goal for a 24-17 game, but the Cardinals continued to move the ball against Buffalo's defense. After driving to the Bills' 11, J.J. Arrington was stuffed on 3rd- and-2, bringing Rackers on for a 28-yard kick. The boot was true but a Bills' offsides call on the kick handed a new set of downs to Arizona. Two plays later, Warner hit Fitzgerald for a two-yard score and a 31-17 advantage.

A 38-yard field goal from Rackers to open the final quarter made it 34-17 and Losman lost a second fumble, this time on a sack from Gerald Hayes, who recovered at the Buffalo 19. The Cardinals got 11 on 3rd-and-12 after taking over but decided to go for the first down and Hightower moved the chains, then found the end zone for a two-yard score and a 41-17 game.

Buffalo's last three drives went for naught as Losman sandwiched a pick between a punt and a turnover on downs.

Game Notes

Buffalo has a 5-4 lead in the all-time series with Arizona and had won four consecutive games against the Cardinals dating back to 1986...Buffalo last visited Arizona in 1999, claiming a 31-21 decision in Sun Devil Stadium...The last win over Buffalo for the Cardinals franchise came in 1984, when the team resided in St. Louis...Arizona has won its last five home tests and is 8-3 as the host since the start of the 2007 season...Among the Bills' inactives were CB Terrence McGee, WR Roscoe Parrish, RB Xavier Omon, FB Corey McIntyre, OT Demetrius Bell, TE Derek Fine and DE Chris Ellis...Arizona was without FB Tim Castille, T Elliot Vallejo, T Brandon Keith, DT Alan Branch, TE Jerame Tuman, DE Bertrand Berry and WR Anquan Boldin, who is out indefinitely after having surgery on a fractured facial bone he suffered in a helmet-to-helmet hit last Sunday against the New York Jets...Fitzgerald passed the 5,000-yard receiving mark in the game and became the seventh quickest player in NFL history to reach that plateau...Hightower now has five touchdowns in five games this season.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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